JOE McGINNISS

Chris Cilizza, who writes The Fix at the Washington Post, is one of the most reliable purveyors of the political conventional wisdom of the moment.  He writes today that Sarah “may have peaked, politically speaking.”  He cites recent polls as evidence of “Palin fatigue” among Republicans and says the most likely reason for the dimming of Sarah’s star was her churlish and ill-advised response to the Tuscon shootings in January.

Even my friend Geoffrey Dunn (his book, The Lies of  Sarah Palin, will be published next month) now puts the likelihood of Sarah running for president at only fifty-fifty.

I disagree.  There is a natural ebb and flow in the tides of politics, and not even Sarah (or maybe especially not Sarah) can always be at high tide.  The primaries are still almost a year away.  She stumbled badly with her needless–did I mention that it was also churlish and ill-advised?–response to the Gifford assassination attempt, and at the end of January another CW spinner, Dana Milbank of the Washington Post, declared February a “Palin-free” month.  Even Sarah could tell she was over-exposed.

So she’s retreated to the high grass temporarily. But let’s remember that it was only two months ago that her hiring of Michael Glassman to head Sarah PAC was seen as a strong indication that she was preparing to challenge Pres. Obama next year.

Then she went to India and Israel when she could have made just as much money closer to home.

So, no, I don’t think we can yet write her off as a fallen star.  If nothing else, her old Wasilla High point guard instinct will not allow her to stay on the bench as Michelle Bachman becomes the Tea Party’s new darling.

One thing about tides:  whatever direction they’re flowing in, they’ll soon move in the opposite direction.